Oded Galor, "The Journey of Humanity"

 

Oded Galor, "The Journey of Humanity: Thr Origins of Wealth and Inequality" (2022)

 

 

아래는 책에서:

 

In 1798, ... Thomas Malthus offered a plausible theory for the mechanism that had caused living standards to remain stagnant, effectively trapping societies in poverty since time immemorial. He argued that whenever societies managed to bring about a food surplus through technological innovation, the resulting boost in living standard could only ever be temporary as it woud lead inevitably to a corresponding rise in birth rate and reduction in mortality rate. (p. 3-4)

 

Indeed, during the period known as the Malthusian epoch -- which is to say, the entirety of human history up until the recent dramatic leap forward -- the fruits of technological advancements were channelled primarily towards larger and denser populations and had only a glacial impact on their long-term prosperity. Populations grew while living conditions stagnated and remained near subsistence. (p. 5)

 

[W]hen the adaptation is cultural rather than biological, these changes can take hold in a population even more rapidly ... the principles that lead to their greater prevalence over time are similar but they spread ... through the mechanisms of imitation, education or indoctrination, giving rise to new cultural traits and their impact on economic and institutional changes. (p. 51)

 

[T]echnological development and human capital created a mutually reinforcing cycle. (p. 71)

 

Instead of a communist revolution, therefore, industrialisation triggered a revolution in mass education. (p. 74)

 

The effect of the Reformation on human capital formation was so persistent that three and a half centuries later, Prussian counties closer to Witenberg were characterised by higher levels of education and, in line with the quantity-quality trade-off, experienced a larger reduction in birth rates than counties further away. (p. 90)

 

This rich historical evidence suggests then that technological advances during the Industrial Revolution led to higher returns on investments in human capital, the narrowing of the gender wage gap, a decline in child labour, an expansion in life expectancy and increase in migration from rural to urban regions, and that these factors contributed to the decline in fertility in the course of the Demographic Transition. (p. 93)

 

Among the major technological breakthroughs of the twentieth century were the harnessing of nuclear energy, the introduction of personal computers, the development of antibiotics, and the advancement of automobiles and aeroplanes, as well as the radio, the television and, of course, the internet.... The development of exceptionally high-yield and disease-resistant varieties of wheat, corn and rice improved agricultural productivity nearly overnight. Described as the 'Green Revolution,' the adoption of these new bumper crops increased harvests tremendously and reduced hunger across the world. (p. 111)

 

[C]ontemporary economic prosperity at the social level is, to a large extent, a product of deep historical, geographical, institutional and cultural features. (p. 115)

 

In fact, the decline in fertility rates since the onset of the Demographic Transition has been reducing the burden of exponential population growth on the environment. So, while the Industrial Revolution triggered our current period of global warming, the concurrent onset of the Demographic Transition may well serve to migrate its effect.... Essentially, sustaining economic growth while mitigating further environmental degradation and reducing the likelihood of 'collapse' will rely on some of the same key factors that have brought us to our current predicament: technological innovation to facilitate the transition away from reliance on fossil fuels and towards environmentally friendly technologies, and a decline in fertility to reduce the population burden on the environment. (pp. 117-8)

 

Scholars refer to institutions that enable elites to monopolise power and perpetuate inequality as extractive institutions. In contrast, institutions that decentralise political power, protect property rights, and encourage private enterprise and social mobility are considered inclusive institutions.... Extractive institutions have typically hindered human capital accumulation, entrepreneurship and technological progress, thereby delaying the transition from stagnation to long-term economic growth, whereas inclusive institutions have reinforced these processes. (p. 145)

 

Max Weber published his influential thesis The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. He argued that Protestantism had contributed to the conviction that the ability to amass wealth in this world was a strong indication of the likelihood of reaching heaven. (p. 164)

 

In 1958 the American political scientist Edward Banfield advanced an influential thesis that attributed southern Italy's lower level of prosperity to stronger family ties in the region. He argued that more intensive family ties diminished trust outside of one's kinship group, weakened cooperation in pursuit of a common public goal. (p. 172)

 

Some scholars have attributed the European technological ascent to critical junctures in the course of human histry: institutional and cultural transformations, such as those that occurred in the aftermath of the Black Death, the collapse of the Roman Empire, or the Age of Enightenment. (p. 212)

 

Abrupt institutional and cultural changes that cannot be traced to deeper origins have undoubtedly played a role in the development of societies, as exemplified by the divergence of North and South Korea in recent decades. Indeed, random or accidental developments could have produced a delay centuries long in the invention of the printing press, prompted the Chinese imperial navy to explore the Americas, sparked the Industrial Revolution in Holland rather than Britain, or thwarted the meiji Restoration in nineteenth-century Japan. (pp. 212-3)

 

The mere appearance of abrupt cultural or institutional transformations conductive to development is in fact secondary to their ability to proliferate and stand the test of time, and in this context their interaction with geographical forces has been critical. Whether the emergence and endurance of the cultural and institutional factors that hastened the 'Rise of Europe' were due to its geographical fragmentation -- which promoted political competition and cultural fluidity -- its high-yield crops that encouraged future-oriented mindset and long-term investment, or any other forces, the main source of modern-day disparities is far from a historical accident. Still, the evolution of institutions and culture, as well as the Neolithic Revolution, have been key determinants of the pace of this process as a whole and its differential patterns across countries and regions. (p. 213)

 

There is another fundamental force affecting economic development: human diversity. While the role of geography in comparative development took us 12,000 years back in time to the dawn of the Neolithic Revolution, an exploration of the role of population diversity will take us many thousands years further back, to where it all began: the exodus of human species from Africa. (p. 214)

 

Privatisation of industry, trade liberalisation and secure property rights might be growth-conductive policies for countries that have already developed the social and cultural prerequisites for economic growth, but in environments where these foundations are absent, where social cohesion is tenuous and corruption well entrenched, such universal reforms have often been fruitless. (p. 234)