[Essay/Replay of address] Noam Chomsky, "Prospects for Survival"

도서관에서 빌려온 책 "The Best American Essays 2018" 에서 읽은

Noam Chomsky 의 에세이를, 그리고 같은 내용의 UMass Amherst

강연 비디오도, 인터넷에서 가져올 수 있어서 좋다.

Noam Chomsky, "Prospects for Survival"

(From a talk delivered in Montevideo, Uruguay, on July 17, 2017)

Replay of address at the Mullin Centre, UMASS Amherst

아래는 본문에서:

"In recent years, humans have constructed two huge sledgehammers poised to destroy us, with others waiting in the wings. Along with these achievements, the dominant forces in global society have instituted policies that systematically erode the best line of defense against self-destruction. In brief, human intelligence has created a perfect storm. If it continues to rage, the human experiment is unlikely to survive very long.

'The history of life on Earth, [Ernst] Mayr concludes, refutes the claim that 'it is better to be smart than to be stupid.' In other words, what we call intelligence may be a lethal mutation.

Mayr adds that the average life span for a species is about a hundred thousand years.

Modern humans emerged about two hundred thousand years ago. They now appear to be engaged in a dedicated effort to confirm Mayr’s thesis — to show that we have perhaps outlived our allotted time on Earth. This enterprise has been under way particularly since the end of World War II, when two imminent threats to survival were constructed by human intelligence, and followed by systematic erosion of the means of defense.

The two awesome challenges to decent survival are, of course, nuclear weapons and environmental catastrophe. The best defense would be a functioning democracy in which informed and engaged citizens join together to develop means to overcome the threats — as can be done. However, policy making during the neoliberal years of the past generation has significantly enhanced the threats.

"The end of World War II was one of the most important moments in human history. It was a time of joy, and also of horror, with the dawn of the nuclear age, an age overshadowed by the dark realization that human intelligence had created the means for terminal destruction.

It was not understood at the time, but the end of World War II also signaled the beginning of another era that threatens organized human existence: the Anthropocene, a new geological epoch in which human activity is dramatically changing the environment.

 

"Let’s look further. Were there some possibilities for diplomatic initiatives to avert the threat of destruction? We cannot be sure, because apparent opportunities were ignored. one was in March 1952, right at the time of the events that moved the clock to two minutes to midnight. Stalin made a remarkable offer: he proposed unification of Germany, which would have largely ended the Cold War. A settlement might have led to elections, which the Communists were sure to lose. There was one crucial condition: that a reunified Germany not join NATO, a hostile military alliance — hardly an extreme demand in the light of recent history.

Stalin’s offer was taken seriously by the eminent and respected foreign policy analyst James Warburg, particularly in his important 1953 book Germany: Key to Peace. He was ignored. Later references to the possibility were dismissed with ridicule, as I can recall even from personal experience.

"Not long after Stalin’s death, Nikita Khrushchev took power. Khrushchev was committed to economic development and understood very well that it would be severely hampered by an arms race with the far richer United States (and with western Europe, which alone more than matched the Russian economy). He therefore proposed sharp mutual reduction in offensive weaponry, and, when he received no response, undertook it unilaterally.

What happened next is described by the late Kenneth Waltz, one of the most respected international relations scholars. After considering Khrushchev’s offer, he writes, the Kennedy administration 'undertook the largest strategic and conventional peacetime military build-up the world has yet seen . . . even as Khrushchev was trying at once to carry through a major reduction in the conventional forces and to follow a strategy of minimum deterrence, and we did so even though the balance of strategic weapons greatly favored the United States.'

"The Chinese-North Korean proposal could lay the basis for more far-reaching negotiations to radically reduce the threats and perhaps even bring the crisis to an end. Contrary to much inflamed commentary, there are reasons to think that negotiations might succeed, so the record reveals.

But the offers are rejected in the usual interests of securing power interests.

"The report[from the U.S. business press], one of a flood, illustrates a remarkable fact of current history: while the world is taking halting steps toward facing the existential challenge to survival, the richest and most powerful state in world history, virtually alone, is racing toward destruction, with enthusiasm and dedication. That has been true since November 8, 2016, another date of great historical significance.

There were three significant events on that date, one important, one extremely important, one astonishing.

The important event was the U.S. election, which virtually monopolized reporting for days.

 

The extremely important event, which received virtually no coverage, took place in Marrakesh, Morocco, where almost all nations of the world were meeting to try to put some teeth in the Paris agreements (COP 21, December 2015). A verifiable treaty could not be reached in Paris, as had been hoped, because the U.S. Republican Congress would not accept it. on November 8, the World Meteorological Organization issued a review of the state of the climate. Along with other dire reports, the review confirmed 'that 2016 was the warmest year on record: a remarkable 1.1 [degrees] C above the pre-industrial period,' sharply above the previous record set in 2015, approaching the desired limit set in Paris. Deliberations effectively ended on November 8. The operative question became: Can we survive with the Leader of the Free World racing toward the precipice? The countries of the world turned to China as the hope for survival. China!

The astonishing event is the dog that didn’t bark, the reaction to these amazing events: Silence.

"Meanwhile, the Republican wrecking ball is systematically

dismantling the structures that offer hope for decent survival. The Environmental Protection Agency, established by Richard Nixon, is being virtually dismantled. ...

Even mention of climate change is coming under a ban, while regulations are being dismantled and every effort is being made to maximize the use of fossil fuels, including the most destructive, like coal.

It’s not just Trump.

 

"Even if sea level rise is more limited than what is anticipated, it will inundate coastal cities and coastal plains, as in Bangladesh, where tens of millions may be forced to flee in the fairly near future, many more later. Today’s refugee issues will be a tea party in comparison. The chief environmental scientist in Bangladesh has said that 'These migrants should have the right to move to the countries from which all these greenhouse gases are coming. Millions should be able to go to the United States.'"